Wednesday, February 06, 2019

Way Too Early Predictions

Caveat: My political predictions are usually way off. I never imagined Trump and Cruz would be the last ones standing in the GOP field in 2016. And it's really early. There are Democrats yet to commit to running.

But anyway, here are my "way to early" predictions...

Kamala Harris and Cory Booker will be the last two standing in the crowded Democratic field. They may even end up running on a ticket together. Not sure who would run as VP or President. But I think they both have the organizational framework and experience to win.

Beto, whether he runs or not, has lost the momentum of his Texas Senate race. He also has limited political experience. I don't doubt that we'll hear from him again. But I think it may be too soon for Beto.

Biden (if he runs): Too old, too white and too gaffe prone to win the Democratic primary. Dems will look to the future, not the past.

Elizabeth Warren: the Native American DNA stuff keeps hanging around. Gives her trust issues. She has great political chops, expertise and a good back story. But she's not very charismatic. Likability is unfortunately an important thing in American politics.

Tulsi Gabbard: Interesting story but too many weird things pop up on her resume...meeting with Syria's dictator Assad, etc. Not well known and not a lot of political experience.

Julian Castro: Not enough political experience and too little known. Not even that well known in Texas, his home state.

Sherrod Brown:  Not even sure he'll run. If he does...not well known at this point. Probably too moderate to win the primaries.

I'm probably wrong on all this! There may be someone who jumps into the race I haven't even considered. Maybe Bernie will make one last run (doubt it). So, take it for what its worth.

By the way, I would be shocked if anyone in the GOP makes a primary challenge to Trump.