So I was looking at my presidential predictions from February 2019 and man was I was way off. I've always been a terrible predictor of presidential politics. One year ago I predicted Kamala and Booker as the last two standing in the Democratic nomination process. I didn't expect Bernie to get back in it. Buttigieg was not even on my radar. Same for Klobuchar and Bloomberg.
American presidential politics is extremely unpredictable. Who would have thought a reality TV star would get elected and get the evangelicals to worship him despite his brazen amorality? Who would have thought high profile senators from California and New Jersey would fail so miserably in the nomination process? The mayor of South Bend, Indiana as a contender? You kidding me? A 78 year old self-proclaimed socialist as the leading candidate? I was a history/political science major in college and I saw none of that coming.
So...my predictions are pretty much worthless. But here goes anyway.
If Bernie gets the nom, Trump wins in a landslide.
The Democrats are going to screw this up, again. They have an amazing shot at victory. They have in their sights a president who is unpopular and a mess. But they're going to put up a nominee who will scare moderate Americans to death. The word socialism will be uttered in every Republican ad. Bernie is volatile and a bit scary when he gets angry.
Trust me, I will vote for Bernie if he's the nominee. I just don't see him attracting the votes of average Americans especially when the economy is strong. No one is going to vote for a revolution when unemployment is at 3% even if many of those jobs can't pay the bills. If he continues to say he will raise taxes on the middle class...he'll be toast in the general election.
So, with my record, I've probably just handed the election to Bernie Sanders. I just don't see it. Elizabeth Warren maybe. Amy Klobuchar possibly. But Sanders?
Lots of things can change over the next few days and months. Coronavirus. Stock markets. Wars. No telling what might happen. It's a chaotic world.
