Sunday, August 14, 2011
So the GOP race is shaping up. Here's my observations so far. Of course it's early and things can change dramatically.
Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain have little support and no chance. They're out.
Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul have rabid support but it still lies on the fringes. Most Republicans know that Bachmann has no chance to beat Obama. They're out.
Pawlenty and Huntsman have no buzz although that could change with a surprise win in one of the early states. But I think neither will capture the nomination. They're out.
Palin probably won't run. She's just out for the attention (showing up when Mitt announced and in Ames on the day of the GOP debate). She has virtually no chance to capture the nomination. Her star reached it's apogee last year. She has or is about to jump the shark. She's out.
So that leaves the race to Mitt Romney or Rick Perry. I believe this is a two man race. I'm not sure about Perry's ability to raise cash outside of Texas. And he will have a tough time when he gets the type of scrutiny he has never had in Texas. Even Republicans in Texas don't like the guy. He's only won because there's not been any alternatives or the field's been split. He once won with only 39% of the electorate. But he has positioned himself as a Tea Party conservative and that may be appealing to a great many Republicans who don't know him as well as Texans.
Mitt probably stands the best chance at beating Obama but he may have a tough time getting the nomination. Most conservatives are suspicious of Romney. He does seem to flip flop on issues like abortion and health care. But he is an ATM machine and has loads of cash.
So I can't guess who the nominee will be. But at this point is sure looks like a two-man race between Romney and Perry.